How Long Will I Actually Serve? Prison Release Points Under the 2026 Rules

By Daniel Hockey · Checked against GOV.UK and legislation · Last updated 8 October 2026 · 12 min read

The short answer: From 1 October 2026, most adults serving a standard fixed-term prison sentence in England and Wales are released automatically after serving one third of it in custody, then spend the rest on licence in the community. Some serious violent and sexual sentences of 4 years or more are released at one half. Rape, child sex offences, manslaughter, causing death by driving and some other offences are excluded and keep their old release point. Time on remand counts in full, and tagged bail counts at half a day per day. Bad behaviour can add up to 84 days per adjudication.

How long will I actually serve under the 2026 rules?

It depends on the type of sentence, the offence and when you were sentenced. For most people given an ordinary fixed-term sentence, called a standard determinate sentence (SDS), the custodial part is now one third.

Release at the right point is automatic and is calculated by the prison. Our guide to release dates and how they are worked out explains the paperwork.

The release points in one table

Sentences of detention in a young offender institution for 18 to 20-year-olds follow the adult one-third rule. The government's factsheet confirms the release, licence and recall changes do not apply to people sentenced as children.

What "SDS+" means

SDS+ is the label for standard sentences that used to be served to the two-thirds point. It covers sentences of 7 years or more for offences such as wounding with intent (section 18 GBH), and sentences of 4 to 7 years for listed violent and sexual offences that carry a maximum of life. These are now released at one half under the amended section 244ZA of the Criminal Justice Act 2003.

How the 2026 model differs from SDS40 and the old 50%

Until 2024, most standard sentences were served half in custody and half on licence. SDS40, introduced by SI 2024/844, moved many sentences to 40%. The Sentencing Act 2026 now moves those prisoners to one third.

The government describes the new approach as a progression model with three stages:

1. Custody, until the release point.
2. Intensive supervision in the community, with regular probation appointments, risk assessments and monitoring.
3. Licence stage for the final part of the sentence. Most people are not actively supervised at this stage, but they stay on licence and can still be recalled.

People managed under MAPPA, terrorism-connected offenders, high-risk cases and some others stay actively supervised until the end of the sentence.

Is release "earned"?

Release at one third is automatic for eligible prisoners. The "earned" part is that bad behaviour pushes release back through added days, which have no overall cap across a sentence.

Who is excluded from one-third release?

The changes apply only to standard determinate sentences. Even then, some offences are excluded by Regulation 5 of SI 2026/953 and keep the release point that applied before 1 October 2026.

Excluded offences (summary of the official list)

• Manslaughter, soliciting murder, child destruction and infanticide
• Causing death by dangerous, careless, unlicensed, uninsured or disqualified driving, and causing death by dangerous or careless cycling
• Rape, and child sex offences under the Sexual Offences Act 2003, including grooming, abuse of position of trust and child sexual exploitation
• Historic sexual offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956, including indecent assault
• Indecent photographs of children, including possession
• Cruelty to a child under 16, and causing or allowing the death or serious harm of a child or vulnerable adult
• Assisting suicide, endangering safety at aerodromes and dangerous dogs offences under section 3 of the 1991 Act
• Genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes
• Attempting, conspiring, inciting or assisting any of these, or murder

Sentence types outside the model

• Life sentences and imprisonment for public protection (IPP)
• Extended determinate sentences
• Sentences for offenders of particular concern (SOPC)
• Terrorist offences covered by section 247A of the Criminal Justice Act 2003

If you are serving an excluded sentence and a non-excluded sentence consecutively, the government's victim guidance says the non-excluded part can still be affected. Our page on concurrent and consecutive sentences explains how terms are combined.

When the change applies to you: the tranches

If you are sentenced on or after 1 October 2026, one-third release applies straight away. If you were already in custody serving a sentence imposed before that date, the change reaches you on a date set by your sentence length.

For concurrent sentences, the longest one counts. Consecutive sentences are added together.

What if I have already passed my new release point?

The Ministry of Justice says people who have already served past their new release date when their tranche starts are released on the first day of that tranche. It estimated around 4,500 first-day releases across the ten tranches.

What if I am already out on a tag?

If you were on licence with a curfew (for example, on HDC) immediately before 1 October 2026, the new release points do not apply to you until 12 October 2027. If you had already been released on ordinary licence before your tranche, the change does not bring your sentence end date forward.

How remand time and tagged bail reduce what is left

Time on remand

Every day you spent in custody on remand for the offence, or a related offence, counts as time served under section 240ZA of the Criminal Justice Act 2003. The prison applies it automatically. A day cannot count twice, and days spent serving another sentence do not count.

Tagged bail credit

If you were on bail with a curfew of at least 9 hours a day monitored by an electronic tag, the court must give credit at half a day for each day, rounded up. Days you broke the conditions are deducted. The judge should state the number of days in open court, so ask your solicitor to check it is right.

If remand time covers the whole custodial part, you can be released from court on the day of sentence. Our guide to remand and how it differs from a sentence explains this in more detail.

Worked examples: what each sentence means in practice

All examples assume an adult, a standard determinate sentence imposed on or after 1 October 2026, a non-excluded offence and no added days. Your actual dates will be calculated in days by the prison.

The two-thirds point for the 8-year SDS+ example would previously have been 5 years 4 months in custody. It is now 4 years.

A sentence of 12 months or less must now usually be suspended for anyone convicted since 22 March 2026, unless an exception applies. Our guide to suspended sentences covers the exceptions.

Things that can make you serve longer

Additional days for breaking prison rules

Since 2 September 2026, an independent adjudicator (a district judge) can add up to 84 days for a single proven disciplinary offence by an adult, double the previous 42. The cap for young offenders is 42 days. The higher limits apply to offences committed on or after that date. Governors cannot add days themselves.

Added days push back your release date, though you can apply to have some remitted for good behaviour. Our guide to adjudications and prison rules explains the hearing.

Recall after release

If you breach your licence, you can be recalled to prison. For most standard-sentence prisoners, the law now provides for automatic re-release after 56 days back in custody, unless an exception applies, such as being charged with a new offence or posing a serious risk. See licence and recall.

Can I get out before the one-third point?

Home detention curfew (HDC) still operates as of October 2026 and can release eligible prisoners on a tag before their automatic release date. Section 26 of the Sentencing Act 2026 would limit HDC to sentences imposed on children, but it was not yet in force when we checked. Our HDC guide sets out the current eligibility rules.

What to do next

1. Check your sentence type. Ask your solicitor, or look at the court record, to confirm whether you received a standard determinate sentence and whether any offence is on the excluded list.
2. Gather remand and tag dates. Write down the date you were first remanded and any period of tagged curfew bail. Mistakes are easier to fix early.
3. Wait for your release date slip. The prison must give you a release date notification within 5 working days of sentence or any change.
4. Query anything that looks wrong. Ask the prison's custody or offender management team, and tell your solicitor if remand or tag credit seems missing.
5. Stay out of trouble inside. Added days are the main way the new rules can extend your time in custody.

If someone you love has been sentenced

The easiest way to learn a release date is for your relative to share their release date slip with you. Expect dates to be recalculated during the 2026–2027 rollout; the Ministry of Justice warned this could take several weeks.

Sources and how we checked this page

This page was written by Daniel Hockey and checked on 8 October 2026 against:

• Sentencing Act 2026, section 23 (legislation.gov.uk)
• The Sentencing Act 2026 (Commencement No. 6 and Revocation) Regulations 2026, SI 2026/953
• Criminal Justice Act 2003, section 244ZA (legislation.gov.uk)
• GOV.UK: Sentencing Bill progression measures factsheet
• GOV.UK: Sentencing Act 2026 offence exclusions
• GOV.UK: Estimated progression model tranche release volumes
• GOV.UK: Progression model: changes to prison release arrangements
• Criminal Justice Act 2003, section 240ZA (legislation.gov.uk)
• Criminal Justice Act 2003, section 240A (legislation.gov.uk)
• Sentencing Act 2020, section 325 (legislation.gov.uk)
• Prison Rules 1999, rule 55A (legislation.gov.uk)
• The Prison (Governor's and Adjudicators' Punishments) (Amendment) Rules 2026, SI 2026/664
• Sentencing Act 2026, section 26 (legislation.gov.uk)
• Sentencing Act 2026, section 32 (legislation.gov.uk)
• HMPPS Sentence Calculation Policy Framework